In a year that was supposed to be the start of an upwards trend for market recovery, we actually took a step back from both last year as well as 2008, in terms of sales. Where exactly are we? Have we hit the bottom? Will it get deeper? When will recovery actually occur and how strong will that recovery be? For actual buyers out there, it’s the perfect situation; tremendous inventory to choose from, great bargaining power and low interest rates. There are of course other circumstances at play as well; have a house to sell that isn’t selling, the uncertain economic climate and of course answers to the questions noted previously.
Comparing this year to previous years produces some interesting results. Overall sales are down 7.46% (3,638 sales in 2010 from 3,927 sales in 2009) and down 3.6% from 2008 (3,773 sales) and significantly lower than the 2007 sales of 6,196 (-41.3%). Within the sales category; apartment condominiums are down 14.9% (659 sales in 2010 compared to 774 sales in 2009 and 815 sales in 2008 (-19.1%); townhomes are down 13.9% (from 483 sales in 2010 from 561 sales in 2009) and down 13.9% from the 815 sales in 2008; and single family homes are down 10.4% (from 1,738 sales in 2010 from 1,940 sales in 2008) and down 1% from 2008 total of 1,755 sales. Average price for all product types was $410,443, a slight increase from $397,766 last year.
| To Dec | To Dec | To Dec | To Dec | Difference | Difference | Difference | |
| Housing Type | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2010/2007 | 2010/2008 | 2010/2009 |
| Units Listed | |||||||
| Duplex | 262 | 259 | 209 | 254 | -3.1% | -1.9% | 21.5% |
| Mobile Home | 545 | 644 | 533 | 556 | 2.0% | -13.7% | 4.3% |
| Recreational | 145 | 84 | 69 | 67 | -53.8% | -20.2% | -2.9% |
| Singles | 4532 | 5580 | 4525 | 4891 | 7.9% | -12.3% | 8.1% |
| Apartment Condo | 2201 | 3017 | 2359 | 2255 | 2.5% | -25.3% | -4.4% |
| Townhouse | 1076 | 1471 | 1204 | 1352 | 25.7% | -8.1% | 12.3% |
| Lots | 956 | 1060 | 1067 | 1136 | 18.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% |
| IC&I | 499 | 678 | 669 | 612 | 22.6% | -9.7% | -8.5% |
| Other | 671 | 823 | 690 | 727 | 8.3% | -11.7% | 5.4% |
| Total | 10887 | 13616 | 11325 | 11850 | 8.8% | -13.0% | 4.6% |
| Units Sold | |||||||
| Duplex | 192 | 96 | 94 | 79 | -58.9% | -17.7% | -16.0% |
| Mobile Home | 301 | 246 | 170 | 191 | -36.5% | -22.4% | 12.4% |
| Recreational | 56 | 9 | 10 | 9 | -83.9% | 0.0% | -10.0% |
| Singles | 2846 | 1755 | 1940 | 1738 | -38.9% | -1.0% | -10.4% |
| Apartment Condo | 1264 | 815 | 774 | 659 | -47.9% | -19.1% | -14.9% |
| Townhouse | 737 | 424 | 561 | 483 | -34.5% | 13.9% | -13.9% |
| Lots | 371 | 157 | 129 | 191 | -48.5% | 21.7% | 48.1% |
| IC&I | 209 | 162 | 117 | 141 | -32.5% | -13.0% | 20.5% |
| Other | 220 | 109 | 132 | 147 | -33.2% | 34.9% | 11.4% |
| Total | 6196 | 3773 | 3927 | 3638 | -41.3% | -3.6% | -7.4% |
| Average Price | |||||||
| Duplex | $359,522 | $387,583 | $341,217 | $360,762 | 0.3% | -6.9% | 5.7% |
| Mobile Home | $108,899 | $117,827 | $98,349 | $96,869 | -11.0% | -17.8% | -1.5% |
| Recreational | $364,768 | $243,618 | $269,900 | $349,811 | -4.1% | 43.6% | 29.6% |
| Singles | $476,467 | $505,320 | $458,304 | $481,405 | 1.0% | -4.7% | 5.0% |
| Apartment Condo | $269,513 | $287,742 | $255,120 | $253,849 | -5.8% | -11.8% | -0.5% |
| Townhouse | $348,996 | $384,130 | $352,609 | $349,079 | 0.0% | -9.1% | -1.0% |
| Lots | $305,764 | $309,751 | $254,045 | $282,800 | -7.5% | -8.7% | 11.3% |
| IC&I | $452,536 | $402,955 | $437,229 | $271,325 | -40.0% | -32.7% | -37.9% |
| Grand Total | $408,811 | $426,101 | $397,766 | $410,443 | 0.4% | -3.7% | 3.2% |
Source: Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board December 2010
It is somewhat discouraging to note that sales have not surpassed previous year’s totals, especially when we are supposed to be coming out of a recession. However, when you take a closer look at the numbers and then take in all of the economic influences, it starts to shed some light. Probably the most serious issue to take into account is inventory. It’s been two years since the market dropped and we haven’t shed much of the inventory available. If you were to add this to the investor product in the market that are sitting empty or rented, this number becomes more significant. In general, there is a correlation between sales and price. However, when you consider that price has not really fluctuated (up 3.2% from 2009, -3.7% from 2008 and up 0.4% from 2007), we may have a bit of a pricing issue. Property owners may not be realistic of their pricing and have not adapted to the consumer. This may be particularly the case when there such a glut of inventory available in the market.
